It appears that the Commission may have led us down the infectious disease path in naming AIDS as the number one killer among one population group in Asia. Will they clarify the confusion or will silence reign?

[him] moderator

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Redefining AIDS in Asia, a report from the Commission on AIDS in Asia - supported primarily by UNAIDS
March 27, 2008

The Commission on AIDS in Asia reported Wednesday that if Asian governments do not boost prevention funding, the region would see increases in AIDS mortality and HIV infections. The UNAIDS-commissioned study predicted that, without additional action, AIDS deaths in Asia could rise from 440,000 each year currently to nearly 500,000 annually by 2020, and total infections could double from 4.9 million to 10 million.

Despite declines in new HIV infections in some countries, "AIDS still accounts for more deaths annually among 15 to 44 year-olds than do tuberculosis and other diseases," the report said.

The report also said: "...currently, HIV epidemics in Asia are highly unlikely to sustain themselves in the "general population" independently of commercial sex, drug injecting, and sex among men. And, most critically, it means that prevention efforts that drastically reduce HIV transmission among and between those most at risk populations will bring the epidemics under control."

Comment - This report finally tones down the doom and gloom HIV scenarios that Peter Piot and pseudo AIDS experts like the US National Intelligence Council, Nicholas Eberstadt, and Susan Hunter have been shouting about during the past decade. However, use of Tim Brown's Asian Epidemic model has resulted in decreasing HIV incidence and prevalence in Asia until close to 2010 when for unclear reasons both HIV incidence and prevalence will begin to increase due to increased transmission in commercial sex networks. Overall, according to this model, HIV prevalence in Asia will slowly increase from the current close to 5 million to over 10 million by 2020. This projection makes no epidemiologic sense to me, but UNAIDS apparently has swallowed this modeling, hook, line, and sinker!

It's shameful that this report asserted that "Regionally, AIDS is estimated to be the single largest cause of death and morbidity due to disease for adults age 15-44 years." This is absolutely wrong - by almost an order of magnitude! The epidemiologists who supplied the HIV/AIDS estimates and data for this report should have known that the global burden of disease study by Colin Mathers clearly showed that because of the huge numbers of AIDS deaths in sub-Saharan Africa, AIDS was the leading cause of adult (15-59 years of age) deaths in 2001 on a global basis. However, for Asia, AIDS was not even in the top 10 leading causes of adult deaths in 2001! I would respectfully ask the authors of this Commission report to put out a correction for this gross error. Ban Ki-moon, UN Secretary-General was not well served by his UN staff when they drafted the following statement for him regarding the Commission's report:

"As a Korean, and the first UN Secretary-General from Asia in more than 30 years, it's no surprise that I often speak of my home continent as a model for economic development. Yet when it comes to the AIDS epidemic, I am more disheartened than proud. Across Asia, AIDS remains the most likely cause of death of people in their most productive years. At the rate we are going, the current 5 million Asians infected with HIV will grow to 13 million by 2020. Meanwhile the death toll mounts, with some 440,000 people succumbing to AIDS each year."

Although this report was from an independent study, the HIV/AIDS estimates and data continue to be supplied by UNAIDS staff or UNAIDS advisors. One of these days, they may actually report accurate numbers, even if it may be by accident! There is no doubt that AIDS is not the leading cause of adult deaths in Asia - nor even within the top 10 causes of adult deaths in Asia - is this error again an indication of epidemiologic incompetence or deliberate distortion of the data by UNAIDS!

However, aside from not agreeing with the HIV/AIDS numbers and projections in this report, I do agree with most of the recommendations in this report.

http://www.theaidspandemic.com/index-a.htm