The [him] moderator has a question about this Reuters video. What new UNICEF report is the journalist talking about when she shows the head of HIV at UNICEF headquarters?

Craig may be Canadian but he is wrong when he says that discontinuing treatment would lead to an increase in prevalence. It would lead to a rapid decrease in prevalence as people die. Treatment INCREASES prevalence as more people with HIV live longer.

Phyu Phyu correctly points out that one of the major causes of the decline in national prevalence is death. Prevention efforts also play a role.

[him] moderator

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HIV rate down in Myanmar
Sunita Rappai
Reuters
June 2, 2012

UNICEF reports that the HIV rate is going down in Myanmar but activists say more needs to be done. Sunita Rappai reports. ( Transcript )

A crowded hospice in Myanmar - home to more than 180 HIV patients. The country has some 85,000 HIV-infected people according to medical aid groups but many go untreated because of a lack of funds. Doctors pay visits here but the patients cook and clean for themselves, helped by volunteers. Though the amenities are basic, patients like 49-year-old Man Zaw Lin Tun are grateful.. He says he didn't know there was medication that could help him live a normal life until doctors explained the treatments. Now a new UNICEF report says Myanmar's HIV rate is going down, thanks to intense prevention efforts.

(SOUNDBITE) (English) CHIEF OF HIV/AIDS SECTION, UNICEF, CRAIG MCCLURE SAYING: "It's important with HIV to continue to provide those prevention and treatment interventions. Otherwise, of course, there is always a possibility that HIV infection prevalence could increase." However, hospice founder Phyu Phyu Tin however is skeptical of the findings. She says rates are going down because patients are dying off and much more needs to be done to fight the disease. A new reform-minded government has vowed to overhaul Myanmar's decrepit health system. But little change is likely in the short-term for HIV sufferers - often shut off in hospices like this one due to social stigma and neglect.

http://www.reuters.com/video/2012/06/02/hiv-rate-down-in-myanmar?videoId=235787338&videoChannel=117760