As the tenth anniversary of the Vancouver AIDS conference is coming up it is time to reflect on what has happened in the last ten years. Here is an abstract of an article from 1996 reporting declining total infections in Burma. Hmm.

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HIV SENTINEL SURVEILLANCE 1992-1995 AND DEVELOPMENT OF AN ESTIMATE OF TOTAL HIV INFECTIONS IN MYANMAR July, 1996

Authors: Bo Kywe, Min Thwe, Hla Naing, Ti Ti, Goodwin DJ, Khin Ohnmar San, Edward Zan, Myint Zaw, Thandar Lwin, Ohn Kyaw. National AIDS Program, Yangon; Tuberculosis Control Program, Yangon; WHO/AIDS-STD, Yangon.

HIV surveillance began in Myanmar in 1985; the first HIV infection was indentified in January 1988. Standardized sentinel surveillance administered by the National AIDS Program began in 1992. Tuberculosis patients were added as a sentinel population in 1995.

Objective: To measure HIV prevalence among sentinel populations in selected locations and develop epidemiological data needed to guide HIV prevention interventions.

Eight sentinel populations (IDUs, CSWs, Male STD, Female STD, TB patients, MCH patients, military recruits, & blood donors) located in 20 geographical areas are surveyed twice yearly. Sentinel prevalence rates are used to develop estimates of total HIV infections for 1992-95. Results: HIV prevalence rates in IDUs peaked in 1993 (mean of 67%) and have since declined (to 55.2% in 1995). HIV prevalence associated with sexual transmission continues to increase (CSWs 18.2%, Male STDs 10.0%, and Female STDs 5.2% in 1995). In 1995 HIV prevalence in TB patients, MCH patients, military recruits and blood donors respectively were 4.2%, 2.2%, 0.7% and 0.53%. Estimates of total HIV infections rose until Sept 1994, after which they began to decline.

Conclusions: Myanmar's NAP has a useful HIV sentinel surveillance system which is helping characterize/monitor the nature and scope of the HIV epidemic in high interest subpopulations. Estimates based upon sentinel surveillance rates suggest total HIV infections may have peaked in 1994.

Address: Dr. Bo Kywe, Deputy Director AIDS/STD Department of Health, Yangon, Myanmar -- ABSTRACT FROM THE XI INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON AIDS, VANCOUVER