HIV Estimates and Projections, Myanmar, 2008 to 2015 has just been published, almost three years into the term.
Below is the summary of findings and you can download the entire report here. The moderator agrees with most of it. There are two problems that the [him] moderator would like to point out.
First, it is useless to compare the socalled 'waves of the epidemic' in Myanmar with other Asian countries. How do Myanmar's waves compare with those in Indonesian Papua or Mumbai?
And the last statement is false. PMCT is almost useless. As access to antiretroviral therapy for women expands, fewer children will be perinatally infected with HIV.
[him] moderator
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"Modelling of HIV data show that HIV prevalence in Myanmar peaked in 2001-2002 and has been slowly declining since then. The HIV incidence peaked a few years earlier and is also showing a slow decline.
Like in other Asian countries, there are three distinct waves of the epidemic. The first group to be affected was the injecting drug users. Next, the sex workers and their male clients were most affected. Finally, transmission from male clients to their wives/other female partners resulted in lower-risk female population being increasingly infected.
Although a large number of low-risk female have become infected, IDUs, MSM and sex workers continue to have the highest incidence rate of HIV infection.
In 2009, an estimated 238,000 people are living with HIV/AIDS. The adult HIV prevalence is 0.61%.
Currently, there are approximately 17,000 new HIV infections each year. Nearly 60% of all new infections are among sex workers and their clients, MSMs and IDUs.
The number of AIDS deaths is showing a downward trend since 2005. Currently, there are approximately 17,500 AIDS deaths per year.
Roughly 74,000 (including old and new persons needing treatment) people in Myanmar are currently in need of antiretroviral care and this number will continue to increase over the next years as more people are put under ART.
Roughly 4,300 HIV-positive women will give birth annually. As PMCT programme expand, fewer number of children will be born with HIV. Approximately 1,900 children are in need of ART in 2009."
