Did Mr Costa read his own organisation’s report?
**************************
Dangerous drug trend in Burma
The United Nations Office of Drugs and Crime is presenting the good news about Burma in a new report issued this week. According to the UNODC, the cultivation of opium has dropped 29 per cent in the past year. Burma now has 21,500 hectares under opium cultivation (about 134,400 rai). That is down from 30,900 hectares in 2005, which was down from 30,900 hectares in 2004, which was a drop from 44,200 in 2003, and so on. These are encouraging statistics, but a wise man once said that you can prove anything with statistics except the truth.
The executive director of UNODC, Antonio Maria Costa, went to Rangoon to introduce the annual report on drug production in Burma. But while he highlighted the figure on decreasing acreage, he neglected other statistics in his own publication. One disturbing second was the figures on actual opium production. They show that the opium crop yield rose 55 per cent even as acreage was falling.
But most troubling of all were the revealing figures on the increasing importance of drugs within the Burmese economy. They indicate that drugs are not just attractive to the gangs and the military dictators who have long acquiesced to the narcotics trade. Now, it appears, opium and therefore heroin have rapidly become an important mainstay of the farmers and merchants who have been lured or pressed into the drug trade.
As the non-government organisation Burmanet said in an analysis of the UN report, farmers will likely become increasingly reluctant to give up their illicit harvest. UNODC said that all measurements of the economic importance of opium rose during the past year. Crops have higher yield, and the estimated value rose 24 per cent to $72 million, or about 2.7 billion baht. UNODC even estimated in the fine print of its statistics that the potential production increase in the next crop year is 315 tonnes _ or 3.15 tonnes of heroin. The bottom line, summed up the UNODC report in a candid paragraph glossed over during the Rangoon festivities: ''Higher opium yields ... offset the reduction in area under cultivation.''
This is atrocious news for Burma, and almost as bad for its neighbours, who have long suffered the fallout of Burmese drug-dealing: Violence, addiction, HIV infections, border problems and refugees among them. Burma is supposed to be halfway through a 15-year plan to make the country drug-free. In such a programme, there always will be setbacks. There is also no denying the fact that Burma has greatly reduced the acreage of its opium, even including a relocation of population. The opium crop, while still the world's second largest after Afghanistan, has generally dropped. But the new UNODC figures released this week must be cause for great concern.
Burma's two opium-producing neighbours have basically wiped out their commercial drug production. Thai and Lao farmers have switched to other crops. But Burma's attempts to force or persuade opium farmers away from opium have reached a critical stage. Instead of providing alternative markets, Burma has depended upon force to get the farmers to switch. Instead of diminishing profits, farmers now are relatively flourishing. Instead of keeping the drug gangs away, the government has allowed them to show the opium growers how to increase their yields and protect their fields.
Thailand has shown and Afghanistan has proved that crop substitution programmes are only as good as their leadership. Thai farmers gladly switched from opium to alternative crops when provided with a chance, with more competitive markets and with encouragement, starting with His Majesty the King. Afghanistan, with none of these advantages, has sunk to the role of world's top drug provider. It is understandable that the UN wants to dwell on the part of its programme that is succeeding.
It will be a tragedy if it fails to meet the challenge and reality that the Burmese drug traffickers are on the verge of a major success.
http://www.bangkokpost.com/News/18Oct2006_news22.php
